US public debt has crossed $35 trillion in 2025. The annual deficit is at 7% of GDP — a level historically reserved for war or crisis. Debt servicing (interest) now exceeds $1.1 trillion per year, more than the defense budget.
Sources : Congressional Budget Office (CBO), US Treasury, Federal Reserve FRED database.
Tariffs of 10 to 145% imposed in 2025-2026 create a choc inflationniste estimated between +0.5 and +1.5 CPI points. The Fed is caught in a vice: cut rates (to support growth) or maintain them (to control inflation imported by tariffs).
The paradox for companies: tariffs raise import costs but uncertainty prevents reshoring. Result: margins compress on both sides. The IMF estimates each point of average tariff cuts world GDP by 0.5%.
Sources : FMI WEO April 2026, Federal Reserve Bank of NY estimates, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
The Fed says « soft landing » but tariffs create an inflationary shock. The message is contradictory — you cannot cut rates AND impose inflationary tariffs.
US institutions solid (Fed, SEC, Treasury) but under growing political pressure. The Fed's independence is publicly questioned.
Nervous markets. High VIX. Declining consumer confidence. The « wealth effect » is fading.
Record inequality (top 10% = 70% of wealth). Unaffordable housing in metros. Middle class under pressure.
The dollar remains the world reserve currency but BRICS+ actively explores alternatives (yuan bilateral deals, gold).
The Fed is transparent (dot plots, minutes) but tariff policy changes daily. Permanent mixed signals.
Unpredictable trade policy. Companies cannot plan beyond 6 months.
Public debt at $35T. Deficit at 7% of GDP. Debt servicing explodes with high rates ($1.1T/year).
Strong tech innovation (AI, semiconductors, biotech). Labor market still solid. US energy is real.
Each dimension is raised to its weighting — it's a geometric product, not a simple average. The lowest score drags the whole system down.
EQΦS aggregates the 9 axiss via a weighted geometric product — not an average. The expanded form and coefficients of the Codex Universalis remain proprietary.
Codex constants are protected. Only φ = 1.618… (golden ratio) is public.
Λ = 0.4984
φ(S) = 0.370
X(S) = 1.029
projected utility = 0.6401
ethical safeguard active.037 → Passage authorized
Stress-test your US tariff exposure. Project the impact of a 10, 25 and 50% increase on your cost structure. Identify critical products/markets. Impact: clarity from 0.385 → 0.50.
Measure your treasury's dollar dependency. Si > 20% of revenue is in USD, hedge FX risk. The dollar can strenglen (flight to safety) OR weaken (deficit + debt). Impact: stability from 0.450 → 0.55.
Project 3 macro scenarios : soft landing (EQΦS stable), technical recession (EQΦS → 0.30), stagflation (EQΦS → 0.25). Prepare a contingency plan for each. Impact: coherence from 0.425 → 0.55.
Watch the TED spread and VIX as leading indicators. Si TED > 100bp ou VIX > 35 for more than 2 weeks, activate the contingency plan immediately. Impact: trust from 0.505 → 0.60.
You just read the proof.
Computed on your data, your case, your framing. Not an opinion — a reproducible mathematical verdict.