The VC market has lost 40% of volume between the 2021 peak and 2025. Dry powder (uninvested capital) reaches $300 billion — but VCs are more selective than ever. "Path to profitability" has become criterion #1 (85% of VCs require it, vs 30% in 2021).
Sources : PitchBook Annual Report 2025, CB Insights, UC Berkeley Founder Study, Carta.
The « growth at all costs » narrative persists despite spectacular failures (WeWork, FTX). 90% of startups fail within 10 years — the rate hasn't changed in 20 years.
Post-WeWork and FTX, VCs demand more governance, transparency and standard metrics. Structural integrity improves slowly.
The VC market has been contracting since 2022 (-40% vs peak). Dry powder is high ($300B) but deployment is very cautious and selective.
Founder burnout (72% per a UC Berkeley study). Mass and normalized layoffs. The "hustle" culture is increasingly recognized as toxic.
Investor confidence rising vs the 2023 trough but selectivity is heightened. Due diligence is more rigorous.
Metrics are better standardized (ARR, NRR, CAC/LTV) but metric gaming remains common (biased cohort analysis, no-recurring revenue counted as ARR).
"Path to profitability" is required by 85% of VCs (vs 30% in 2021) but rarely achieved. Unit economics remain blurry for most startups.
18-24 month cycles between rounds. Frequent pivots. High team churn. Operational stability is a luxury.
Innovation continues, especially in AI (75% of 2025 deals). Creative and entrepreneurial energy remains the ecosystem's strength.
Each dimension is raised to its weighting — it's a geometric product, not a simple average. The lowest score drags the whole system down.
EQΦS aggregates the 9 axiss via a weighted geometric product — not an average. The expanded form and coefficients of the Codex Universalis remain proprietary.
Codex constants are protected. Only φ = 1.618… (golden ratio) is public.
Λ = 0.4447
φ(S) = 0.333
X(S) = 0.806
projected utility = 0.4597
ethical safeguard active.050 → Passage authorized
Measure the startup's φ(S) BEFORE investing or scaling. If φ < 0.4, fix the fundamentals first (governance, unit economics, culture). Scaling a fragile system only accelerates its collapse — cf. WeWork. Impact: avoid 70% of post-investment failures.
Auditer l'alignment founder/team/market. Alignment between founder vision and market reality must be strong. If the founder chases a vision the market doesn't validate, alignment is zero. Impact: coherence from 0.425 → 0.55.
Require real, verified unit economics over at least 6 months. Not 5-year projections based on growth assumptions. LTV/CAC real > 3, not "projected to maturity". Impact: clarity from 0.362 → 0.50.
Check burn rate vs runway. If the runway is under 18 months with no credible path to the next raise or to profitability, that's a stability red flag. Burn must be justified by real growth, not speculative hiring. Impact: stability from 0.362 → 0.45.
You just read the proof.
Computed on your data, your case, your framing. Not an opinion — a reproducible mathematical verdict.