Bear market vs bull market: the cycle a stock market crash interrupts
The essentials in 30 seconds
- A bull market is a period of generally rising prices, and a bear market is a decline of 20% or more.
- Morningstar data for 1926 to 2014 gives bull markets an average of 8.5 years and a cumulative return of 458%.
- The same data gives bear markets an average of 13 months and an average cumulative loss of 30%.
- A stock market crash can end a bull market in days, as the Dow fell 22.6% on 19 October 1987.
- EQOS Asia supports decision makers in Singapore, ASEAN, and Hong Kong.
Bear market vs bull market is the basic cycle of stock prices: long rising phases, shorter falling ones. A stock market crash interrupts that rhythm with a sudden fall. This page compares the two phases as of October 2026, using dated figures from Wikipedia. It is a detailed page under Bear market and stock market crash, within the Stock market crash hub.
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What defines a bull market and a bear market?
A bull market is a period of generally rising prices. Wikipedia explains that bull markets generally begin when stocks rise 20% from their low and end when they suffer a 20% drawdown. The mirror image is the bear market: a general decline in the stock market over a period of time, commonly measured as a fall of 20% or more over at least two months.
The shared 20% rule makes the two phases symmetric. One rise of 20% from a low opens a bull phase, and one fall of 20% from a high opens a bear phase. A reader can therefore date the turning points on any index with the same arithmetic and a record of closing prices.
How long do bull and bear markets last, and what do they return?
Morningstar data for 1926 to 2014, cited by Wikipedia, shows a large gap. Bull markets lasted 8.5 years on average, with an average cumulative total return of 458% and annualized gains between 14.9% and 34.1%. Bear markets lasted 13 months on average, with an average cumulative loss of 30%.
Annualized declines in bear markets ranged from 19.7% to 47% in the same record. The contrast is time as much as size: rising phases are long and steady, and falling phases are short and sharp. That asymmetry is the reason many long-horizon investors accept bear markets as a cost of owning shares.
Why does a bear market loss need a larger bull market gain?
Percentages work asymmetrically. A fall of 30% leaves 70 out of every 100 invested, and getting back to 100 requires a gain of about 43%. The deeper the bear market, the more the next bull market must deliver just to return to the old high. A loss of 50% requires a gain of 100%.
This arithmetic explains why a bear market feels longer than its calendar length. Recovery is a second journey of its own. It also explains why large, fast falls matter so much: the same speed that makes a crash dramatic raises the climb needed afterwards, so protecting against the deepest losses has an outsized effect.
How does a stock market crash interrupt a bull market?
A bull market can end slowly or in a day. On 19 October 1987 the Dow fell 22.6% in one session and the S&P 500 fell 20.47%, after a long rise. The S&P 500 reached a low of 230.30 in November, down 31.6%, and it regained its pre-crash high of 336.77 on 26 July 1989.
The 1929 crash ended a bull market with lasting effects: the Dow lost 89% of its value before bottoming in July 1932. Both cases are crashes, and their aftermath differs. In 1987 the effect on the real economy in the United States stayed limited and short-lived, while the 1929 fall led into years of decline.
What did 2020 show about a compressed bear and bull cycle?
The 2020 episode compressed a full cycle into months. The S&P 500 took about 6 days to fall from its high into correction territory, the Dow entered a bear market on 11 March 2020, and four US circuit breaker halts occurred on 9, 12, 16, and 18 March. The crash phase ended on 7 April.
US indices then regained their January levels in November 2020. A bear market that begins with a crash and ends within months is unusual against the 13-month average. The case shows that the cycle has a tempo that can speed up, and it reminds readers to measure each phase with dates instead of assuming a standard length.
How do secular trends fit into bear market vs bull market labels?
Wikipedia describes trends in layers. Primary trends last a year or more, and secular trends last 5 to 25 years. A bear market usually sits inside a primary trend, and a series of bull and bear phases can make up a secular trend. The layers help you locate the current phase on a longer map.
Different layers call for different questions. For a primary trend, ask whether the 20% rule has been crossed. For a secular trend, ask how valuations, interest rates, and growth have shifted over decades. The answers are not always aligned, and a clear statement of the layer keeps a discussion about the market precise.
How can you use the bear market vs bull market cycle in a plan?
Match each phase with a rule. In a bull phase, review concentration and set rebalancing bands before gains grow lopsided. In a bear phase, check cash needs, keep a reserve that avoids forced selling, and follow your review dates. This page is general information, not investment advice. Rules written in advance reduce the pull of the headlines.
The wider map sits in the guide on bear market and stock market crash, which links crashes and bear markets. To see how your own exposure behaves in a soft landing, a correction, and a crash, the EQOS Asia Λ simulator applies one scoring structure to each scenario.
See also in this guide
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between a bear market and a bull market?
A bull market is a period of generally rising prices that begins after a rise of 20% from a low. A bear market is a general decline, commonly a fall of 20% or more over at least 2 months. Bull markets last years, and bear markets last months.
How long do bull markets last compared with bear markets?
Morningstar data for 1926 to 2014 gives an average bull market length of 8.5 years and an average bear market length of 13 months. The rising phase is therefore far longer than the falling phase in that record, though each episode differs.
Can a stock market crash end a bull market?
Yes. A crash can end a bull market within days, as on 19 October 1987, when the Dow fell 22.6%. The aftermath varies: the S&P 500 regained its pre-crash high on 26 July 1989, while the 1929 fall led to an 89% loss by July 1932.
Why does a bear market loss need a bigger gain to recover?
Percentages apply to a smaller base after a fall. A 30% loss needs a gain of about 43% to return to the old high, and a 50% loss needs 100%. This page is general information, not investment advice, and the arithmetic helps you size risk before a fall.
Test your knowledge
1. What average length do bull markets show in 1926 to 2014 Morningstar data?
- 13 months
- 8.5 years
- 2 days
Show the answer
8.5 years.
2. What gain recovers a 30% loss, approximately?
- 30%
- 43%
- 70%
Show the answer
43%.
3. When did the S&P 500 regain its pre-crash 1987 high?
- 26 July 1989
- 19 October 1987
- 7 April 2020
Show the answer
26 July 1989.
4. How long do secular trends last, per Wikipedia?
- A few days
- 5 to 25 years
- Exactly 1 year
Show the answer
5 to 25 years.
5. What rise from a low usually starts a bull market?
- 2%
- 5%
- 20%
Show the answer
20%.
About the author
Stéphane Jambu
President, EQOS Forecast Asia
Stéphane Jambu leads EQOS Forecast Asia and works as a consultant in e-commerce, search visibility, and AI. LinkedIn profile
Sources: EQOS Asia Λ simulator (eqos-asia.com/simulator.html), Market trend (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend), Black Monday 1987 (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)), Stock market crash (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash), 2020 stock market crash (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_stock_market_crash), Trading curb (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_curb), consulted on 22 October 2026. Page updated on 22 October 2026.