Dot-com bubble timeline from 1995 to 2002, read against the AI bubble
The essentials in 30 seconds
- The dot-com bubble ran from about 1995 to a low on 9 October 2002, with a peak on 10 March 2000.
- The Nasdaq Composite peaked at 5,048.62 and the NASDAQ-100 bottomed at 1,114, down 78% (Wikipedia, Dot-com bubble).
- The turn took 5 weeks, from the 13 March 2000 sell-off to a 9% fall on 14 April.
- Each stage gives one question for the AI bubble, such as who funds the spending.
- The EQOS Asia AI study scores enterprise AI at 0.337 (April 2026).
When was the dot-com bubble? This timeline runs from 1995 to 2002 and reads each stage against the AI bubble as of October 2026. It sits under What was the dot-com bubble and follows the dated events of the public record. Each stage ends with a question you can ask of AI today, so the history becomes a working tool. This page is general information, not investment advice.
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When was the dot-com bubble, from the first rise to the last low?
The dot-com bubble ran in 3 stages. Prices rose from 1995, the Nasdaq Composite peaked on 10 March 2000 at 5,048.62, and the NASDAQ-100 bottomed at 1,114 on 9 October 2002, down 78% from its peak (Wikipedia, Dot-com bubble). Some timelines date the bubble from 1995 to 2000 and others stretch the aftermath to 2004, so this page fixes the dates and says which stage each one belongs to.
A dated timeline gives you something a story cannot: a sequence you can compare. When a headline about AI appears, you can ask which stage of 1995 to 2002 it resembles. The question gives no date for AI. It gives you a way to place today’s evidence among known stages, and to review that placement every quarter.
What happened from 1995 to 1997 as the dot-com bubble began?
1995 brought the launch of Amazon.com and eBay, and over 40 million people used the internet that year (Wikipedia, Dot-com bubble). The Telecommunications Act of 1996 then took effect, and telecom equipment firms invested more than $500 billion in the next 5 years, mostly with debt. Cheap building capacity and a growing audience set the base for the first listings.
In 1997 Amazon went public while recording a 900% revenue increase over the prior year, and the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 lowered the top capital gains tax (Wikipedia, Dot-com bubble). Both events lowered the price of waiting for growth. The AI question for this stage is simple: who builds capacity today, and who pays for it? The EQOS Asia AI study puts the yearly figure at about $200B.
How did 1998 and 1999 turn the dot-com bubble into a mania?
In 1998 Amazon was valued at over $14 billion while it still lost money. In 1999 Qualcomm shares rose 2,619% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 85.6%, against 19.5% for the S&P 500 (Wikipedia, Dot-com bubble). The gap between the 2 indexes shows how concentrated the excitement was. One index returning more than 4 times the other is a market that tells a single story.
By late 1999 the Nasdaq price-to-earnings ratio stood above 200. At that level buyers pay for more than 200 years of current earnings, so the price rested on growth that had not yet arrived. For AI, the matching reading is the price-to-earnings ratio of the AI leaders, which you can check each quarter in public accounts.
What marked the peak of the dot-com bubble in early 2000?
January 2000 held 2 signs of the top. AOL announced its merger with Time Warner on 10 January, then the largest merger to date. On 30 January, 12 of the 61 ads at Super Bowl XXXIV were bought by dot-coms, at prices from $1.9 million to $2.2 million per 30-second spot (Wikipedia, Dot-com bubble). When advertising and deals reach that scale, the story has reached everyone.
The Nasdaq Composite then peaked on 10 March 2000 at 5,048.62. The data of that day gave no warning of the top, and that is the lesson. Peaks are visible afterwards. A decision maker facing AI today reads signs of scale, such as advertising, deal size, and valuation ratios, as reasons to review exposure and not as a date.
Which events in March and April 2000 turned the dot-com bubble?
The turn came in 5 weeks. On 13 March 2000 news of a Japanese recession set off a global sell-off that hit technology shares hardest. On 20 March a Barron’s cover article warned that internet companies were running out of cash, and MicroStrategy fell $140 per share, or 62%, in one day. On 21 March the Federal Reserve raised interest rates (Wikipedia, Dot-com bubble).
April added 2 more blows. The Microsoft antitrust ruling of 3 April led to a 15% one-day drop in Microsoft shares and an 8% drop in the Nasdaq, and on 14 April the Nasdaq fell 9%, or 25% for the week. Cash, rates, and rules each hit in turn. The AI version of this list is funding, interest rates, and regulation, and each one can be watched monthly.
How did the dot-com bubble end between November 2000 and 2002?
Pets.com shut down on 9 November 2000, 9 months after its IPO. By then most internet stocks were down 75%, which wiped out $1.755 trillion. The fall continued through 2001, with the September attacks adding pressure, and the Enron, WorldCom, and Adelphia scandals followed between October 2001 and July 2002 (Wikipedia, Dot-com bubble).
By 2002 stocks had lost $5 trillion in market capitalisation since the peak, and the NASDAQ-100 reached its low on 9 October 2002. The fall took 31 months. 48% of dot-com companies survived through 2004, at lower valuations (Wikipedia, Dot-com bubble), which shows that a bubble ends without ending the technology.
Where does today’s AI bubble sit on the dot-com bubble timeline?
Place each AI signal on the 1995 to 2002 line. Capacity spending of $200B a year and valuations up ×4 in 18 months (EQOS Asia AI study, April 2026) can be set beside the build and mania stages, and 95% of projects failing in production (MIT 2025) is a result gap of the kind that preceded the turn. As of October 2026 this placement is a judgement, so write it down with the date.
A score makes the placement repeatable. The EQOS Asia method page explains how φ(S) is built, and the pricing page lists the studies that apply it to your case. The enterprise AI market scores 0.337, in the fragile zone, where a shock can tip the system. The timeline tells you which events to watch, and the score tells you how fragile the base is.
See also in this guide
Frequently asked questions
When was the dot-com bubble?
The rise began around 1995, the Nasdaq Composite peaked at 5,048.62 on 10 March 2000, and the NASDAQ-100 reached its low of 1,114 on 9 October 2002, down 78% (Wikipedia, Dot-com bubble). Some timelines extend the aftermath to 2004. The fall alone took 31 months.
When did the dot-com bubble burst?
The turn began in March 2000: a global sell-off on 13 March, a Barron’s warning on 20 March, and a Federal Reserve rate rise on 21 March. Prices kept falling through 2001 and 2002. Since no single day marks the end, this page describes stages.
How many years did the dot-com bubble last?
The rise ran about 5 years, from 1995 to March 2000, and the fall about 2.5 years, to October 2002. Counting from the first rise to the low gives roughly 7.5 years. Length differs by definition, so state your start and end dates before comparing with AI.
What does the timeline say about the AI bubble?
It shows an order of events: capacity spending, mania, a turn, a fall. As of October 2026, the EQOS Asia AI study scores enterprise AI at 0.337 and records valuations up ×4 in 18 months. The timeline places those signals among known stages and gives no date for AI.
Test your knowledge
1. On which date did the Nasdaq Composite peak?
- 10 March 1999
- 10 March 2000
- 10 March 2002
Show the answer
10 March 2000.
2. What did Super Bowl ads show in January 2000?
- 12 of 61 ads came from dot-coms
- Every ad came from a bank
- The ads were cancelled
Show the answer
12 of 61 ads came from dot-coms.
3. How long did the fall take from the peak to the low?
- 5 weeks
- 12 months
- 31 months
Show the answer
31 months.
4. What happened on 21 March 2000?
- Pets.com shut down
- The Federal Reserve raised rates
- AOL merged with Time Warner
Show the answer
The Federal Reserve raised rates.
5. What share of dot-com companies survived through 2004?
- 12%
- 78%
- 48%
Show the answer
48%.
About the author
Stéphane Jambu
President, EQOS Forecast Asia
Stéphane Jambu leads EQOS Forecast Asia and works as a consultant in e-commerce, search visibility, and AI. LinkedIn profile
Sources: EQOS Asia AI impact study (eqos-asia.com/case-studies/ia-2026.html), EQOS Asia method page (eqos-asia.com/method.html) and pricing page (eqos-asia.com/pricing.html), Wikipedia Dot-com bubble (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble), consulted on 22 October 2026. Page updated on 22 October 2026.